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http://www.engr.sjsu.edu/cmpe/bulletin/news20041206.php

Yeah, right.

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BMJ wrote:
> http://www.engr.sjsu.edu/cmpe/bulletin/news20041206.php
>
> Yeah, right.
Drop the "ro" in robust and they've got it right... it's a real bust!

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I got a visitor from the US. He is a Russian sysadmin on H1B visa
working in Silicon Valley. He told me that Silicon Valley is the
fantastic place of work and the place to be. He told me: "Just imagine:
a city 20 km by 20 km. In each building is an IT company. Plenty of
jobs for everyone." However, this is when the economy is good. If the
economy is bad, Silicon Valley is "the bad place to be". However again,
he told me, that the US economy is picking up, and he sees the proof
that Silicon valley is again the place to be in.

\|/.

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I got a visitor from the US. He is a Russian sysadmin on H1B visa
working in Silicon Valley. He told me that Silicon Valley is the
fantastic place of work and the place to be. He told me: "Just imagine:
a city 20 km by 20 km. In each building is an IT company. Plenty of
jobs for everyone." However, this is when the economy is good. If the
economy is bad, Silicon Valley is "the bad place to be". However again,
he told me, that the US economy is picking up, and he sees the proof
that Silicon valley is again the place to be in.

\|/.

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afia boy wrote:
> I got a visitor from the US. He is a Russian sysadmin on H1B visa
> working in Silicon Valley. He told me that Silicon Valley is the
> fantastic place of work and the place to be. He told me: "Just imagine:
> a city 20 km by 20 km. In each building is an IT company. Plenty of
> jobs for everyone." However, this is when the economy is good. If the
> economy is bad, Silicon Valley is "the bad place to be". However again,
> he told me, that the US economy is picking up, and he sees the proof
> that Silicon valley is again the place to be in.
>
> \|/.
>

The same mentality applied to the oil industry twenty-five years ago.
Then it imploded during the 1980s recession. Things have picked up
since, but the situation is nowhere close to what it used to be.

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BMJ wrote:
>
> The same mentality applied to the oil industry twenty-five years ago.

> Then it imploded during the 1980s recession. Things have picked up
> since, but the situation is nowhere close to what it used to be.

Except that there's still oil in the ground, somewhere in the USA,
which needs to be taken out, refined, and distributed.

Software, however, is easily available and nearly commoditized and when
a high percentage of eastern Europe, former Soviet Union, India, China,
and southeast Asia have the proper knowledge to program shell
tools(i.e. awk, perl, python,...), java, a/o cpp then there's no need
for anyone but salesmen in the US. In fact, even custom coding can be
offshored without too many problems.

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Close enough.
http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0...2623112,00.html

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rrc wrote:
> BMJ wrote:
>
>>The same mentality applied to the oil industry twenty-five years ago.
>
>
>>Then it imploded during the 1980s recession. Things have picked up
>>since, but the situation is nowhere close to what it used to be.
>
>
> Except that there's still oil in the ground, somewhere in the USA,
> which needs to be taken out, refined, and distributed.

The main influence is its price. If it's sufficiently high, marginally
productive fields will get a second look. It might also justify
secondary or tertiary recovery. Accessibility to the formation is also
important as the rig site will require preparation, though directional
drilling does reduce some of that.

Without the relatively high price, oil sands, such as what we have here
in Alberta, would not be economical.

>
> Software, however, is easily available and nearly commoditized and when
> a high percentage of eastern Europe, former Soviet Union, India, China,
> and southeast Asia have the proper knowledge to program shell
> tools(i.e. awk, perl, python,...), java, a/o cpp then there's no need
> for anyone but salesmen in the US. In fact, even custom coding can be
> offshored without too many problems.
>

So can the source of the oil. If the cost of production is cheaper in
another country, exporting it would be more economical.

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rick++ wrote:
> Close enough.
> http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0...2623112,00.html
>

I heard the same thing as an undergrad nearly thirty years ago. When I
was finishing my B. Sc., I had offers from three oil companies.

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BMJ wrote:
> rrc wrote:
> > Software, however, is easily available and nearly commoditized and
when
> > a high percentage of eastern Europe, former Soviet Union, India,
China,
> > and southeast Asia have the proper knowledge to program shell
> > tools(i.e. awk, perl, python,...), java, a/o cpp then there's no
need
> > for anyone but salesmen in the US. In fact, even custom coding can
be
> > offshored without too many problems.
> >
>
> So can the source of the oil. If the cost of production is cheaper
in
> another country, exporting it would be more economical.

'Tis true.

The main problem with any sort of energy crisis is that it's usually
political in nature (i.e. OPEC embargos, Mideast/Caspian wars, etc). In
the future, Siberia will be the final frontier when the mideast oil
runs out, however, since Russia's oil industry is tightly under the
hand of Vlad Putin ala Stalin jr, it'll probably be able to set the
price at whatever level it wants. With that in mind, the US, Canada,
and other western nations will at least try to keep some skeleton crew
to run its own marginal facilities, even during a bust period.

IT, however, will only maintain sales offices stateside. There's way
too much incentive to do 100% of the software work in eastern Europe,
former-SSR, India, China, and SE Asia.

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On Mon, 27 Dec 2004, rrc wrote:

> Date: 27 Dec 2004 10:11:22 -0800
> From: rrc <rrcolby@go.com>
> Newsgroups: sci.research.careers
> Subject: Re: A Cornucopia Of Computing Jobs
>
> BMJ wrote:
>> http://www.engr.sjsu.edu/cmpe/bulletin/news20041206.php
>>
>> Yeah, right.
> Drop the "ro" in robust and they've got it right... it's a real bust!
>
>

I went to that URL on Dec 29 (using Lynx) and it gave me a 404.

Anyone care to fill me in on what was there?

Art

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On Mon, 27 Dec 2004, rrc wrote:

> Date: 27 Dec 2004 10:11:22 -0800
> From: rrc <rrcolby@go.com>
> Newsgroups: sci.research.careers
> Subject: Re: A Cornucopia Of Computing Jobs
>
> BMJ wrote:
>> http://www.engr.sjsu.edu/cmpe/bulletin/news20041206.php
>>
>> Yeah, right.
> Drop the "ro" in robust and they've got it right... it's a real bust!
>
>

I went to that URL on Dec 29 (using Lynx) and it gave me a 404.

Anyone care to fill me in on what was there?

Art

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On Wed, 29 Dec 2004, afia boy wrote:

> Date: 29 Dec 2004 00:14:02 -0800
> From: afia boy <furunculez@yahoo.com>
> Newsgroups: sci.research.careers
> Subject: Re: A Cornucopia Of Computing Jobs
>
> I got a visitor from the US. He is a Russian sysadmin on H1B visa
> working in Silicon Valley. He told me that Silicon Valley is the
> fantastic place of work and the place to be. He told me: "Just imagine:
> a city 20 km by 20 km. In each building is an IT company. Plenty of
> jobs for everyone." However, this is when the economy is good. If the
> economy is bad, Silicon Valley is "the bad place to be". However again,
> he told me, that the US economy is picking up, and he sees the proof
> that Silicon valley is again the place to be in.
>
> \|/.
>
>

Did he say how he got his job?
Did he say how every applicant for a job gets a job?
Did he say why its "the place to be"?
Did he say how long he was there?
Did he say what fraction of the office space in those IT buildings is
unoccupied?
Did he say whether he 'replaced' some American guy by taking a lower
salary?
Do you think he was telling 100% the truth?


I have some more questions you can ask these guys next time they like
to brag. And, pay attention if you ask them to prove anything if they give
you a funny look.

???????

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On Wed, 29 Dec 2004, rrc wrote:

> Date: 29 Dec 2004 08:02:24 -0800
> From: rrc <rrcolby@go.com>
> Newsgroups: sci.research.careers
> Subject: Re: A Cornucopia Of Computing Jobs
>
> BMJ wrote:
>>
>> The same mentality applied to the oil industry twenty-five years ago.
>
>> Then it imploded during the 1980s recession. Things have picked up
>> since, but the situation is nowhere close to what it used to be.
>
> Except that there's still oil in the ground, somewhere in the USA,
> which needs to be taken out, refined, and distributed.

As I understand it, 95% of all of the easy-to-recover oil in the USA has
already been pumped out. The remaining 5% is capped. If there is any
emphasis now, its on off-shore oil, or getting crude on the open market.
Exxon-Mobile and all the other robber-barrons really dont' care; they will
charge _at least_ what the market will bear for gas.

> Software, however, is easily available and nearly commoditized and when
> a high percentage of eastern Europe, former Soviet Union, India, China,
> and southeast Asia have the proper knowledge to program shell
> tools(i.e. awk, perl, python,...), java, a/o cpp then there's no need
> for anyone but salesmen in the US. In fact, even custom coding can be
> offshored without too many problems.

I think this is right.

>

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On Wed, 29 Dec 2004, rrc wrote:

> Date: 29 Dec 2004 08:02:24 -0800
> From: rrc <rrcolby@go.com>
> Newsgroups: sci.research.careers
> Subject: Re: A Cornucopia Of Computing Jobs
>
> BMJ wrote:
>>
>> The same mentality applied to the oil industry twenty-five years ago.
>
>> Then it imploded during the 1980s recession. Things have picked up
>> since, but the situation is nowhere close to what it used to be.
>
> Except that there's still oil in the ground, somewhere in the USA,
> which needs to be taken out, refined, and distributed.

As I understand it, 95% of all of the easy-to-recover oil in the USA has
already been pumped out. The remaining 5% is capped. If there is any
emphasis now, its on off-shore oil, or getting crude on the open market.
Exxon-Mobile and all the other robber-barrons really dont' care; they will
charge _at least_ what the market will bear for gas.

> Software, however, is easily available and nearly commoditized and when
> a high percentage of eastern Europe, former Soviet Union, India, China,
> and southeast Asia have the proper knowledge to program shell
> tools(i.e. awk, perl, python,...), java, a/o cpp then there's no need
> for anyone but salesmen in the US. In fact, even custom coding can be
> offshored without too many problems.

I think this is right.

>

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On Wed, 29 Dec 2004, rick++ wrote:

> Date: 29 Dec 2004 08:03:18 -0800
> From: rick++ <rick303@hotmail.com>
> Newsgroups: sci.research.careers
> Subject: Re: A Cornucopia Of Computing Jobs
>
> Close enough.
> http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0...2623112,00.html
>
>

Well, this one did show up when I went to it. Guys, I'd venture to guess
this is going to be a flash in the pan. $60+K for a BS in relevant eng
field is not like the grand IT days with 90-100+ K for the right subject
background. What the article still did not say anything about is for how
long the "replacement" of old guys with young guys will run for. This is
not like 100% of the oil industry workers are retiring in the next 1-2
years. BFD, they go hire a bigger fraction of the graduating class than
usual, get lots of press, kids flock, and -- guess what -- no shortage
after all. I'd like to see followups on how many PetE (etc) have ended up
in PetE jobs up to now, and now, and in the future.

There was an article in WSJ about NASA saying the same thing: "Oh, look,
all of our guys are old and gonna retire...oh...terrible...we're going to
get a smaller applicant pool than back when the market was flooded."


http://scijobs.freeshell.org

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rrc wrote:

<snip>

>>
>>So can the source of the oil. If the cost of production is cheaper
>
> in
>
>>another country, exporting it would be more economical.
>
>
> 'Tis true.
>
> The main problem with any sort of energy crisis is that it's usually
> political in nature (i.e. OPEC embargos, Mideast/Caspian wars, etc). In
> the future, Siberia will be the final frontier when the mideast oil
> runs out, however, since Russia's oil industry is tightly under the
> hand of Vlad Putin ala Stalin jr, it'll probably be able to set the
> price at whatever level it wants. With that in mind, the US, Canada,
> and other western nations will at least try to keep some skeleton crew
> to run its own marginal facilities, even during a bust period.

The reserves in the Alberta oil sands are on the scale of what's in the
Middle East. We've had plants producing there for well over twenty
years, so there's no shortage in that respect.

Another possibility are gas hydrates and there are indications that the
reserves of methane (which is the major component of natural gas) in
those formations are larger than what's presently available.

>
> IT, however, will only maintain sales offices stateside. There's way
> too much incentive to do 100% of the software work in eastern Europe,
> former-SSR, India, China, and SE Asia.
>

That's because the "resource", namely programmers and the like, are
widely available and are the cheapest in those areas. Natural resources
are not uniformly distributed.

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straydog wrote:
>
>
>
> On Mon, 27 Dec 2004, rrc wrote:
>
>> Date: 27 Dec 2004 10:11:22 -0800
>> From: rrc <rrcolby@go.com>
>> Newsgroups: sci.research.careers
>> Subject: Re: A Cornucopia Of Computing Jobs
>>
>> BMJ wrote:
>>
>>> http://www.engr.sjsu.edu/cmpe/bulletin/news20041206.php
>>>
>>> Yeah, right.
>>
>> Drop the "ro" in robust and they've got it right... it's a real bust!
>>
>>
>
> I went to that URL on Dec 29 (using Lynx) and it gave me a 404.
>
> Anyone care to fill me in on what was there?
>
> Art

I just tried it with Mozilla and it loaded properly. It basically says
that people in computing should let the good times roll, as if we
haven't heard that sort of thing before.

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straydog wrote:

<snip>

>
> Well, this one did show up when I went to it. Guys, I'd venture to guess
> this is going to be a flash in the pan. $60+K for a BS in relevant eng
> field is not like the grand IT days with 90-100+ K for the right subject
> background. What the article still did not say anything about is for how
> long the "replacement" of old guys with young guys will run for. This is
> not like 100% of the oil industry workers are retiring in the next 1-2
> years. BFD, they go hire a bigger fraction of the graduating class than
> usual, get lots of press, kids flock, and -- guess what -- no shortage
> after all. I'd like to see followups on how many PetE (etc) have ended
> up in PetE jobs up to now, and now, and in the future.

When I was an undergrad in the mid-'70s, there was a genuine demand for
engineers in the oil and gas industry here in Canada. In those days,
anybody who wanted a job could get one. I had a choice of three job
offers during my fourth year.

Mind you, in those days, the industry had a "wild west" feeling to it
and job hopping was not uncommon. By the early '80s, that was all a
thing of the past.

>
> There was an article in WSJ about NASA saying the same thing: "Oh, look,
> all of our guys are old and gonna retire...oh...terrible...we're going
> to get a smaller applicant pool than back when the market was flooded."

True, but many of the retirees started in the 1960s when NASA knew how
to do things, unlike today.

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He told me he did schmoozing among the Russian-speaking community, and
the contacts got him a job in the all-Russian-speaking-staff company in
Silicon Valley. He told me he would not get a job if it was not for
that contact. It happened, I presume, in the years of IT downturn few
years ago.

But the issue for a recent immigrant is not "what fraction of the
office space in those iT buildings is occupied". A recent immigrant
needs to get a job, and he does not worry right at the moment if it has
shaky grounds for prospectives. Heck, this thinking applies to all of
us, because we all are immigrants on earth.

\|/.

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BMJ wrote:

> When I was an undergrad in the mid-'70s, there was a genuine demand
for
> engineers in the oil and gas industry here in Canada. In those days,
> anybody who wanted a job could get one

Hmm... in this person's starting career years, jobs were plentiful, but
as he neared retirement, the number of jobs became insufficient. On the
other hand, in my graduating years, the jobs were scarce. Does that
mean that when I am approaching my retirement age, the jobs will be
plentiful ? Or, the period "job boom/job bust" stretches for longer
than the career life span of an individual ??

\|/.

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afia boy wrote:
> BMJ wrote:
>
>
>>When I was an undergrad in the mid-'70s, there was a genuine demand
>
> for
>
>>engineers in the oil and gas industry here in Canada. In those days,
>>anybody who wanted a job could get one
>
>
> Hmm... in this person's starting career years, jobs were plentiful, but
> as he neared retirement, the number of jobs became insufficient. On the
> other hand, in my graduating years, the jobs were scarce. Does that
> mean that when I am approaching my retirement age, the jobs will be
> plentiful ? Or, the period "job boom/job bust" stretches for longer
> than the career life span of an individual ??
>
> \|/.
>

Nah. The availability and quality have been exponentially decreasing
with time. Start reserving your place under the bridge....

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> BMJ wrote:

>>When I was an undergrad in the mid-'70s, there was a genuine demand
for
>>engineers in the oil and gas industry here in Canada. In those days,
>>anybody who wanted a job could get one

> Hmm... in this person's starting career years, jobs were plentiful,
but
> as he neared retirement, the number of jobs became insufficient. On
the
> other hand, in my graduating years, the jobs were scarce. Does that
> mean that when I am approaching my retirement age, the jobs will be
> plentiful ? Or, the period "job boom/job bust" stretches for longer
> than the career life span of an individual ??
> \|/.

: Nah. The availability and quality have been exponentially decreasing
: with time. Start reserving your place under the bridge....

.... only to discover when my time comes to move under the bridge that
all the cosy places under the bridge are taken by the bloody
baby-boomers again...

\|/.

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afia boy wrote:
>>BMJ wrote:
>
>
>>>When I was an undergrad in the mid-'70s, there was a genuine demand
>
> for
>
>>>engineers in the oil and gas industry here in Canada. In those days,
>>>anybody who wanted a job could get one
>
>
>>Hmm... in this person's starting career years, jobs were plentiful,
>
> but
>
>>as he neared retirement, the number of jobs became insufficient. On
>
> the
>
>>other hand, in my graduating years, the jobs were scarce. Does that
>>mean that when I am approaching my retirement age, the jobs will be
>>plentiful ? Or, the period "job boom/job bust" stretches for longer
>>than the career life span of an individual ??
>>\|/.
>
>
> : Nah. The availability and quality have been exponentially decreasing
> : with time. Start reserving your place under the bridge....
>
> ... only to discover when my time comes to move under the bridge that
> all the cosy places under the bridge are taken by the bloody
> baby-boomers again...
>
> \|/.
>

That's because the boomers started planning for their "retirements"
under said bridge early on.

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