Registered: Not Yet
Location:
Posts: N/A

http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/si...ey/10487035.htm
AP Wire | 12/23/2004 | Scientist: Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2029

Watch the government use this as an excuse for shortage shouting about
the shortage of scientists.


--Jerry Leslie
Note: leslie@jrlvax.houston.rr.com is invalid for email

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Not Yet
Location:
Posts: N/A

leslie wrote:
> http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/si...ey/10487035.htm
> AP Wire | 12/23/2004 | Scientist: Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2029
>
> Watch the government use this as an excuse for shortage shouting about
> the shortage of scientists.
>
>
> --Jerry Leslie
> Note: leslie@jrlvax.houston.rr.com is invalid for email

How about a justification for the ballistic missile defence system--you
know, the one that can't hit the broad side of a barn?

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Not Yet
Location:
Posts: N/A

On Fri, 24 Dec 2004, leslie wrote:

> Date: Fri, 24 Dec 2004 08:10:20 GMT
> From: leslie <LESLIE@JRLVAX.HOUSTON.RR.COM>
> Newsgroups: sci.research.careers
> Subject: Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2029
>
>
> http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/si...ey/10487035.htm
> AP Wire | 12/23/2004 | Scientist: Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2029
>
> Watch the government use this as an excuse for shortage shouting about
> the shortage of scientists.
>
>
> --Jerry Leslie
> Note: leslie@jrlvax.houston.rr.com is invalid for email
>

Well, they'd better start worrying about that. Lots of asteroid orbits are
not known and there are a lot of them and they don't have to be very big
to do a lot of damage.

I would have thought that the cometary impacts on Jupiter back in the mid
'90s would have been a wakeup call to accelerate the astroid orbit mapping
efforts, but it was all a fart in a windstorm. Those cometary impacts made
shockwaves that were observed to spread all over most of the planet (which
is much much larger than earth).

Its a good question whether, if an impact trajectory is determined, the
human race can organize anything to mitigate the effects.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Not Yet
Location:
Posts: N/A

straydog wrote:
>
>
>
> On Fri, 24 Dec 2004, leslie wrote:
>
>> Date: Fri, 24 Dec 2004 08:10:20 GMT
>> From: leslie <LESLIE@JRLVAX.HOUSTON.RR.COM>
>> Newsgroups: sci.research.careers
>> Subject: Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2029
>>
>>
>> http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/si...ey/10487035.htm
>> AP Wire | 12/23/2004 | Scientist: Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2029
>>
>> Watch the government use this as an excuse for shortage shouting about
>> the shortage of scientists.
>>
>>
>> --Jerry Leslie
>> Note: leslie@jrlvax.houston.rr.com is invalid for email
>>
>
> Well, they'd better start worrying about that. Lots of asteroid orbits
> are not known and there are a lot of them and they don't have to be very
> big to do a lot of damage.
>
> I would have thought that the cometary impacts on Jupiter back in the
> mid '90s would have been a wakeup call to accelerate the astroid orbit
> mapping efforts, but it was all a fart in a windstorm. Those cometary
> impacts made shockwaves that were observed to spread all over most of
> the planet (which is much much larger than earth).

I remember when all that happened ten years ago. It was front-page news
for several reasons.

First was that Comet Shoemaker-Levy collided with Jupiter and that one
could actually observe it.

Second was that this was spread out over several days because the comet
was broken up by Jupiter's gravitational field and became a string of
smaller comets.

Another reason was that this happened several months after the Hubble
Space Telescope had its first major orbital upgrade and became a fully
operational instrument. The impact of the comet was one of the first
tests of Hubble's capabilities. Remember that it was launched with
defective optics, so the observations of the impacts were used as a
justification for maintaining it.

Shortly after that, political interest was expressed in some sort of
deep space observation network, similar to that used for detecting
ballistic missiles. That's largely where it remained.

>
> Its a good question whether, if an impact trajectory is determined, the
> human race can organize anything to mitigate the effects.

As you mentioned, the orbits of many asteroids and comets are unknown.
In addition, many are so small that they can't be easily detected. Many
may remember Comet Hale-Bopp. If I remember correctly, its existence
hadn't been known until about a year or so earlier.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Not Yet
Location:
Posts: N/A

BMJ wrote:
>
> leslie wrote:
> > http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/si...ey/10487035.htm
> > AP Wire | 12/23/2004 | Scientist: Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2029
> >
> > Watch the government use this as an excuse for shortage shouting about
> > the shortage of scientists.
> >
> >
> > --Jerry Leslie
> > Note: leslie@jrlvax.houston.rr.com is invalid for email
>
> How about a justification for the ballistic missile defence system--you
> know, the one that can't hit the broad side of a barn?

I don't know about that one, but I know about the one that didn't
even get off the ground in the last test. :-)

Cheers,
Russell
--
All too often the study of data requires care.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Not Yet
Location:
Posts: N/A

leslie wrote:
>
> http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/si...ey/10487035.htm
> AP Wire | 12/23/2004 | Scientist: Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2029
>
> Watch the government use this as an excuse for shortage shouting about
> the shortage of scientists.
>
> --Jerry Leslie
> Note: leslie@jrlvax.houston.rr.com is invalid for email

The question is will they use it as an excuse to fund scientists,
even assuming we can do anything about it. Besides, we don't
need scientists to defend Earth from that, we need Bruce Willis. :-)

Cheers,
Russell
--
All too often the study of data requires care.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Not Yet
Location:
Posts: N/A

R. Martin wrote:

<snip>

>>
>>How about a justification for the ballistic missile defence system--you
>>know, the one that can't hit the broad side of a barn?
>
>
> I don't know about that one, but I know about the one that didn't
> even get off the ground in the last test. :-)
>
> Cheers,
> Russell

How can it hit its target when it can't get off the ground? :-) There
have been allegations that many of the previously "successful" tests
were actually orchestrated by following pre-determined trajectories
rather than completely random which a full-scale strike would likely be.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Not Yet
Location:
Posts: N/A

BMJ wrote:
>
> R. Martin wrote:
>
> <snip>
>
> >>
> >>How about a justification for the ballistic missile defence system--you
> >>know, the one that can't hit the broad side of a barn?
> >
> >
> > I don't know about that one, but I know about the one that didn't
> > even get off the ground in the last test. :-)
> >
> > Cheers,
> > Russell
>
> How can it hit its target when it can't get off the ground? :-)

It waits for the incoming missile to hit it and destroys it that
way. :-) I think the plan is to put one in every major city. So
what if it doesn't work? To quote our illustrious Sec. of Def.,
"You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want
to have."

> There
> have been allegations that many of the previously "successful" tests
> were actually orchestrated by following pre-determined trajectories
> rather than completely random which a full-scale strike would likely be.

They wouldn't be completely random, unless the attacker can control
gravity. ;-) Yes, I've heard that, along with the incoming target
having some device that sent out a signal that the interceptor could
track.

Cheers,
Russell
--
All too often the study of data requires care.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Not Yet
Location:
Posts: N/A

leslie wrote:
>
> http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/si...ey/10487035.htm
> AP Wire | 12/23/2004 | Scientist: Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2029
>
> Watch the government use this as an excuse for shortage shouting about
> the shortage of scientists.
>
> --Jerry Leslie
> Note: leslie@jrlvax.houston.rr.com is invalid for email

I just started reading the next book on my reading list, _Catastrophe:
Risk And Response_ by Richard A. Posner. The cover has an
illustration of an astroid hitting Earth on the cover. The author
specifically addresses threats that, although they have very small
(perhaps incalculable) chances of happening would have enormous
consequences, like the extinction of homo sapiens as a species.
There is still time to rush out and pick it up for theose people
on your Christmas list with anxiety. :-)

Cheers,
Russell
--
All too often the study of data requires care.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Not Yet
Location:
Posts: N/A

On Fri, 24 Dec 2004, R. Martin wrote:

> Date: Fri, 24 Dec 2004 18:40:09 GMT
> From: R. Martin <russell.martin@wdn.com>
> Newsgroups: sci.research.careers
> Subject: Re: Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2029
>
> BMJ wrote:
>>
>> R. Martin wrote:
>>
>> <snip>
>>
>>>>
>>>> How about a justification for the ballistic missile defence system--you
>>>> know, the one that can't hit the broad side of a barn?
>>>
>>>
>>> I don't know about that one, but I know about the one that didn't
>>> even get off the ground in the last test. :-)
>>>
>>> Cheers,
>>> Russell
>>
>> How can it hit its target when it can't get off the ground? :-)
>
> It waits for the incoming missile to hit it and destroys it that
> way. :-) I think the plan is to put one in every major city. So
> what if it doesn't work? To quote our illustrious Sec. of Def.,
> "You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want
> to have."

Yeah, wasn't that a beaut? Lets not ask why we're going to war, just do
it. Lets not ask if there are WMD somewhere, just 'talk the walk' and get
busy (no, not shoot and ask questions later, just shoot, shoot, shoot).

>> There
>> have been allegations that many of the previously "successful" tests
>> were actually orchestrated by following pre-determined trajectories
>> rather than completely random which a full-scale strike would likely be.
>
> They wouldn't be completely random, unless the attacker can control
> gravity. ;-) Yes, I've heard that, along with the incoming target
> having some device that sent out a signal that the interceptor could
> track.

I heard about the fake tests, too. Kinda like our elections? Well, you
could put an explosive in either the target or the missle, have it go off,
and who else without the advanced radar could tell if it was a fake or
not? There were articles in _Science_ many years ago about how bad the
Patriot missles were but they had a net big good effect on morale over in
the Israeli areas. You know, so what if broken parts of all the missle
shots, hit or miss, fell down on people and their houses and did almost as
much damage as if the missle hit a ground target and blew up some other
house or two? Kinda like the asteroid problem; they say if you threw
atomic explosives at the asteroid there's a good chance pretty big
fragments would still hit the earth, carrying radioactivity back on our
heads, too.

> Cheers,
> Russell
> --
> All too often the study of data requires care.
>

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Not Yet
Location:
Posts: N/A

On Fri, 24 Dec 2004, BMJ wrote:

> Date: Fri, 24 Dec 2004 15:33:09 GMT
> From: BMJ <parametric_equation@yahoo.com>
> Newsgroups: sci.research.careers
> Subject: Re: Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2029
>
> leslie wrote:
>> http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/si...ey/10487035.htm
>> AP Wire | 12/23/2004 | Scientist: Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2029
>>
>> Watch the government use this as an excuse for shortage shouting about the
>> shortage of scientists.
>>
>>
>> --Jerry Leslie
>> Note: leslie@jrlvax.houston.rr.com is invalid for email
>
> How about a justification for the ballistic missile defence system--you know,
> the one that can't hit the broad side of a barn?
>

I could not believe the sillyness of an illustration in a recent newspaper
article on this; big picture of North Korea (on left) and USA (on right)
and a black missle, with vapor trail going back to N.K., and a white,
interceptor missle (slightly larger, too), with its vapor trail, going
back to the western USA. And, the two missles closing fast and the
caption: "Folks, this is the way it works". And, I wanted to bust out
with hysterical laughing. Couple of decades ago, all the "bad" black
missles were coming out of the USSR and all of our good, white missles
coming out of the USA. And, they were telling everyone here to build
fallout shelters which were going to save us from everything. The
best cartoon I saw was this goof coming out of his fallout shelter
screaming "We won" and all around him is large piles of black ashes,
everywhere.

Just think about it: a nuclear warhead missle coming out of N.K. One
missle. At the USA. Hint: don't think about the thousands of MIRVed ICBMs
we still have in silos and don't think about the atomic subs we have
complete with MIRVed IRBMs sailing all over the world in the oceans.

Then think about 9/11.

Are we smart? You'd better get the right answer the first time around.

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged

Registered: Not Yet
Location:
Posts: N/A

straydog wrote:

<snip>

>> How about a justification for the ballistic missile defence
>> system--you know, the one that can't hit the broad side of a barn?
>>
>
> I could not believe the sillyness of an illustration in a recent
> newspaper article on this; big picture of North Korea (on left) and USA
> (on right) and a black missle, with vapor trail going back to N.K., and
> a white, interceptor missle (slightly larger, too), with its vapor
> trail, going back to the western USA. And, the two missles closing fast
> and the caption: "Folks, this is the way it works". And, I wanted to
> bust out with hysterical laughing. Couple of decades ago, all the "bad"
> black missles were coming out of the USSR and all of our good, white
> missles coming out of the USA. And, they were telling everyone here to
> build fallout shelters which were going to save us from everything. The
> best cartoon I saw was this goof coming out of his fallout shelter
> screaming "We won" and all around him is large piles of black ashes,
> everywhere.

Wasn't there a book published during the first Reagan administration on
that theme: "With Enough Shovels"?

>
> Just think about it: a nuclear warhead missle coming out of N.K. One
> missle. At the USA. Hint: don't think about the thousands of MIRVed
> ICBMs we still have in silos and don't think about the atomic subs we
> have complete with MIRVed IRBMs sailing all over the world in the oceans.
>
> Then think about 9/11.

I remember reading the novel "Commander One" by Peter George while I was
in the early '70s. (The author also wrote the book on which the movie
"Dr. Strangelove" was based.) The baddies put nukes in trucks, drive
them up to the BMEWS stations, and set them off. Defcon One follows
shortly afterwards.

>
> Are we smart? You'd better get the right answer the first time around.
>

There's a debate here in Canada about participating in that nonsense.
After all, where would the interceptions take place?

Report this post to a moderator | IP: Logged