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straydog
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Vote fraud....


I have not looked at the URL below. FYI.


=====

Clear evidence of election fraud:
"There was an unusual shift [between exit polls and 'official' results]
in favor of Bush which occurred in 10 of the 11 'battleground' states
[no difference in Wis.]. In these 10 key states, the unusual shift in
favor of Bush ranged from 1.6% in Michigan to 9.5% in New Hampshire.
If there were innocent errors involved, one would expect to see shifts
in favor of both Bush and Kerry."

-- Moss v. Bush, Action to Contest Elections, pg 31,
http://joeorgren.com/MossvBush1.pdf


**




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Old Post 12-22-2004 02:05 PM
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cicero
Usenet User

Registered: Not Yet
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Re: Vote fraud....


"straydog" <advocacy@sdf.lonestar.org> wrote in message
news:Pine.NEB.4.61.0412221448320.12586@sdf.lonestar.org...
>
> I have not looked at the URL below. FYI.
>
>
> =====
>
> Clear evidence of election fraud:
> "There was an unusual shift [between exit polls and 'official' results]
> in favor of Bush which occurred in 10 of the 11 'battleground' states
> [no difference in Wis.]. In these 10 key states, the unusual shift in
> favor of Bush ranged from 1.6% in Michigan to 9.5% in New Hampshire.
> If there were innocent errors involved, one would expect to see shifts
> in favor of both Bush and Kerry."
>
> -- Moss v. Bush, Action to Contest Elections, pg 31,
> http://joeorgren.com/MossvBush1.pdf




Why is a "shift" "unusual"?



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Old Post 12-22-2004 08:02 PM
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Smith Rhoade
Usenet User

Registered: Not Yet
Location:
Posts: N/A

Re: Vote fraud....


"cicero" <cicero@spqr.com> wrote in message
news:cqckb1$f2r$1@admin-svc.micron.com...
>
> "straydog" <advocacy@sdf.lonestar.org> wrote in message
> news:Pine.NEB.4.61.0412221448320.12586@sdf.lonestar.org...
>>
>> I have not looked at the URL below. FYI.
>>
>>
>> =====
>>
>> Clear evidence of election fraud:
>> "There was an unusual shift [between exit polls and 'official' results]
>> in favor of Bush which occurred in 10 of the 11 'battleground' states
>> [no difference in Wis.]. In these 10 key states, the unusual shift in
>> favor of Bush ranged from 1.6% in Michigan to 9.5% in New Hampshire.
>> If there were innocent errors involved, one would expect to see shifts
>> in favor of both Bush and Kerry."
>>
>> -- Moss v. Bush, Action to Contest Elections, pg 31,
>> http://joeorgren.com/MossvBush1.pdf

>
>
>
> Why is a "shift" "unusual"?
>

Here is a NON POLITICAL, scientific, response:

Because it is very improbable that it could have happened without the
intervention of monkey business.

According to the lawsuit, I did read through it, the probability that the
election results would differ from the exit polling results, by chance, is
approximately 1 in 1000. This is because the exit polling sample size was
huge; many multiples of the sample size used for the typical telephone poll
that has a +/- 3% error.

Thus, while it is certainly possible that the disparities happened by
chance, (stuff happens one time out of a thousand, randomly), it is
reasonable to at least strongly suspect that something else -not random
happenings -was going on. After all, these results would be due to
someting other than chance 999 times out of 1000.

The exit polling statistics give no information on what that something else
might be.
It could be fraud, machine error, really bad or incompetent exit polling,
something precipitated by TV reporting etc, dishonest answers by those
approached for exit polling. And yes, if you believe in tooth fairies it
could have been a random event.

Personally, I would like to see every voting machine leave two paper trails.
One would be a receipt showing how the voter voted, that the voter would
keep. The other would be a machine readable ballot that would go into a
ballot box.

The machine election results would be verified by an actual count of ballots
in the ballot box. Thus there would be very fast results generated from the
voting machine's internal electronics, and opportunity to verify those
results by a slower (but still rapid) count of the paper trail. The two had
better damn well be in sync.

We will never be able to know if our elections are honest so long as there
is no paper trial, no counting of machine readable paper ballots, and all we
have to go by is some number the voting machine generated, which we must
accept as "real."

Old Dahd still lurking and pretending to be a statistician.



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Old Post 12-23-2004 03:03 PM
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Russell Martin
Usenet User

Registered: Not Yet
Location:
Posts: N/A

Re: Vote fraud....

Smith Rhoade wrote:
>
> "cicero" <cicero@spqr.com> wrote in message
> news:cqckb1$f2r$1@admin-svc.micron.com...
> >
> > "straydog" <advocacy@sdf.lonestar.org> wrote in message
> > news:Pine.NEB.4.61.0412221448320.12586@sdf.lonestar.org...
> >>
> >> I have not looked at the URL below. FYI.
> >>
> >>
> >> =====
> >>
> >> Clear evidence of election fraud:
> >> "There was an unusual shift [between exit polls and 'official' results]
> >> in favor of Bush which occurred in 10 of the 11 'battleground' states
> >> [no difference in Wis.]. In these 10 key states, the unusual shift in
> >> favor of Bush ranged from 1.6% in Michigan to 9.5% in New Hampshire.
> >> If there were innocent errors involved, one would expect to see shifts
> >> in favor of both Bush and Kerry."
> >>
> >> -- Moss v. Bush, Action to Contest Elections, pg 31,
> >> http://joeorgren.com/MossvBush1.pdf

> >
> >
> >
> > Why is a "shift" "unusual"?
> >

> Here is a NON POLITICAL, scientific, response:
>
> Because it is very improbable that it could have happened without the
> intervention of monkey business.
>
> According to the lawsuit, I did read through it, the probability that the
> election results would differ from the exit polling results, by chance, is
> approximately 1 in 1000. This is because the exit polling sample size was
> huge; many multiples of the sample size used for the typical telephone poll
> that has a +/- 3% error.
>
> Thus, while it is certainly possible that the disparities happened by
> chance, (stuff happens one time out of a thousand, randomly), it is
> reasonable to at least strongly suspect that something else -not random
> happenings -was going on. After all, these results would be due to
> someting other than chance 999 times out of 1000.
>
> The exit polling statistics give no information on what that something else
> might be.
> It could be fraud, machine error, really bad or incompetent exit polling,
> something precipitated by TV reporting etc, dishonest answers by those
> approached for exit polling. And yes, if you believe in tooth fairies it
> could have been a random event.
>
> Personally, I would like to see every voting machine leave two paper trails.
> One would be a receipt showing how the voter voted, that the voter would
> keep. The other would be a machine readable ballot that would go into a
> ballot box.
>
> The machine election results would be verified by an actual count of ballots
> in the ballot box. Thus there would be very fast results generated from the
> voting machine's internal electronics, and opportunity to verify those
> results by a slower (but still rapid) count of the paper trail. The two had
> better damn well be in sync.
>
> We will never be able to know if our elections are honest so long as there
> is no paper trial, no counting of machine readable paper ballots, and all we
> have to go by is some number the voting machine generated, which we must
> accept as "real."
>
> Old Dahd still lurking and pretending to be a statistician.


And doing a credible job of it.

There was a very interesting article in _The American Scientist_
after the 2000 election about how difficult it is to accurately
count a huge number of votes, even by computer, given the
probability of errors.

I'd like to see polling places with single input devices to two
machines, one under control of each major party (sorry, Nader
supporters, you don't get your own machines :-) ). Each machine
would encrypt the voters' ballot choices and record those on the
magnetic strips of credit cards (or smart cards, or some such
technology) which would then be given to the voters. If the tallies
from the two machines agree, no problem (unless the two major parties
are colluding, an interesting premise for a novel or a statement of
reality, depending on your point of view). If the tallies disagree,
the voters could bring their cards to be scanned and the votes
recounted. Is such a system expensive and inconvenient? Probably,
but as they say freedom isn't free.

Now, how we get decent candidates from the major parties, or major
parties that are significantly different enough in their positions
to provide a real choice is another question entirely. :-)

Cheers,
Russell
--
All too often the study of data requires care.

The opinions expressed are mine personally and do not
reflect any position of the U.S. Government or NOAA.

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Old Post 12-23-2004 04:01 PM
Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
straydog
Usenet User

Registered: Not Yet
Location:
Posts: N/A

Re: Vote fraud....




On Thu, 23 Dec 2004, Russell Martin wrote:

> Date: Thu, 23 Dec 2004 13:17:30 -0500
> From: Russell Martin <Russell.Martin@noaa.gov>
> Newsgroups: sci.research.careers
> Subject: Re: Vote fraud....
>
> Smith Rhoade wrote:
>>
>> "cicero" <cicero@spqr.com> wrote in message
>> news:cqckb1$f2r$1@admin-svc.micron.com...
>>>
>>> "straydog" <advocacy@sdf.lonestar.org> wrote in message
>>> news:Pine.NEB.4.61.0412221448320.12586@sdf.lonestar.org...
>>>>
>>>> I have not looked at the URL below. FYI.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> =====
>>>>
>>>> Clear evidence of election fraud:
>>>> "There was an unusual shift [between exit polls and 'official' results]
>>>> in favor of Bush which occurred in 10 of the 11 'battleground' states
>>>> [no difference in Wis.]. In these 10 key states, the unusual shift in
>>>> favor of Bush ranged from 1.6% in Michigan to 9.5% in New Hampshire.
>>>> If there were innocent errors involved, one would expect to see shifts
>>>> in favor of both Bush and Kerry."
>>>>
>>>> -- Moss v. Bush, Action to Contest Elections, pg 31,
>>>> http://joeorgren.com/MossvBush1.pdf
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Why is a "shift" "unusual"?
>>>

>> Here is a NON POLITICAL, scientific, response:
>>
>> Because it is very improbable that it could have happened without the
>> intervention of monkey business.
>>
>> According to the lawsuit, I did read through it, the probability that the
>> election results would differ from the exit polling results, by chance, is
>> approximately 1 in 1000. This is because the exit polling sample size was
>> huge; many multiples of the sample size used for the typical telephone poll
>> that has a +/- 3% error.
>>
>> Thus, while it is certainly possible that the disparities happened by
>> chance, (stuff happens one time out of a thousand, randomly), it is
>> reasonable to at least strongly suspect that something else -not random
>> happenings -was going on. After all, these results would be due to
>> someting other than chance 999 times out of 1000.
>>
>> The exit polling statistics give no information on what that something else
>> might be.
>> It could be fraud, machine error, really bad or incompetent exit polling,
>> something precipitated by TV reporting etc, dishonest answers by those
>> approached for exit polling. And yes, if you believe in tooth fairies it
>> could have been a random event.
>>
>> Personally, I would like to see every voting machine leave two paper trails.
>> One would be a receipt showing how the voter voted, that the voter would
>> keep. The other would be a machine readable ballot that would go into a
>> ballot box.
>>
>> The machine election results would be verified by an actual count of ballots
>> in the ballot box. Thus there would be very fast results generated from the
>> voting machine's internal electronics,


Nah.... I don't want no electronics....

and opportunity to verify those
>> results by a slower (but still rapid) count of the paper trail. The two had
>> better damn well be in sync.


Yeah, yeah, yeah....

>> We will never be able to know if our elections are honest so long as there
>> is no paper trial, no counting of machine readable paper ballots, and all we
>> have to go by is some number the voting machine generated, which we must
>> accept as "real."
>>
>> Old Dahd still lurking and pretending to be a statistician.

>
> And doing a credible job of it.
>
> There was a very interesting article in _The American Scientist_
> after the 2000 election about how difficult it is to accurately
> count a huge number of votes, even by computer, given the
> probability of errors.
>
> I'd like to see polling places with single input devices to two
> machines, one under control of each major party (sorry, Nader
> supporters, you don't get your own machines :-) ). Each machine
> would encrypt the voters' ballot choices and record those on the
> magnetic strips of credit cards (or smart cards, or some such
> technology) which would then be given to the voters.


I got a better idea....

You print up ballots like dollar bills. Every one of them hard to
counterfiet, all have unique serial numbers. Say red one for repubs, blue
for dems. When you vote, you TAKE the one away that you DON'T want
elected. Something like in ancient Greek times. Tha'ts your paper trail.
THEY have to keep what is left, count up the reds & blues right on TV for
all to see. Just like the recounts. Citizens can keep their tabs for their
life.

If the tallies
> from the two machines agree, no problem (unless the two major parties
> are colluding, an interesting premise for a novel or a statement of
> reality, depending on your point of view). If the tallies disagree,
> the voters could bring their cards to be scanned and the votes
> recounted. Is such a system expensive and inconvenient? Probably,
> but as they say freedom isn't free.


Everything that insures a 'check' also removes our secret vote system.
That part is bad.

> Now, how we get decent candidates from the major parties, or major
> parties that are significantly different enough in their positions
> to provide a real choice is another question entirely. :-)


Easy, everyone takes a test and gets asked if they are red or blue or
neutral and then throw out all the people who pick a color. Use people who
don't have strong feelings about any issue. Less bias, less corruption.

> Cheers,
> Russell
> --
> All too often the study of data requires care.
>
> The opinions expressed are mine personally and do not
> reflect any position of the U.S. Government or NOAA.
>









































































































































































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Old Post 12-23-2004 04:01 PM
Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
R. Martin
Usenet User

Registered: Not Yet
Location:
Posts: N/A

Re: Vote fraud....

straydog wrote:
>
> On Thu, 23 Dec 2004, Russell Martin wrote:
>
> > Date: Thu, 23 Dec 2004 13:17:30 -0500
> > From: Russell Martin <Russell.Martin@noaa.gov>
> > Newsgroups: sci.research.careers
> > Subject: Re: Vote fraud....
> >
> > Smith Rhoade wrote:
> >>
> >> "cicero" <cicero@spqr.com> wrote in message
> >> news:cqckb1$f2r$1@admin-svc.micron.com...
> >>>
> >>> "straydog" <advocacy@sdf.lonestar.org> wrote in message
> >>> news:Pine.NEB.4.61.0412221448320.12586@sdf.lonestar.org...
> >>>>
> >>>> I have not looked at the URL below. FYI.
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>> =====
> >>>>
> >>>> Clear evidence of election fraud:
> >>>> "There was an unusual shift [between exit polls and 'official' results]
> >>>> in favor of Bush which occurred in 10 of the 11 'battleground' states
> >>>> [no difference in Wis.]. In these 10 key states, the unusual shift in
> >>>> favor of Bush ranged from 1.6% in Michigan to 9.5% in New Hampshire.
> >>>> If there were innocent errors involved, one would expect to see shifts
> >>>> in favor of both Bush and Kerry."
> >>>>
> >>>> -- Moss v. Bush, Action to Contest Elections, pg 31,
> >>>> http://joeorgren.com/MossvBush1.pdf
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> Why is a "shift" "unusual"?
> >>>
> >> Here is a NON POLITICAL, scientific, response:
> >>
> >> Because it is very improbable that it could have happened without the
> >> intervention of monkey business.
> >>
> >> According to the lawsuit, I did read through it, the probability that the
> >> election results would differ from the exit polling results, by chance, is
> >> approximately 1 in 1000. This is because the exit polling sample size was
> >> huge; many multiples of the sample size used for the typical telephone poll
> >> that has a +/- 3% error.
> >>
> >> Thus, while it is certainly possible that the disparities happened by
> >> chance, (stuff happens one time out of a thousand, randomly), it is
> >> reasonable to at least strongly suspect that something else -not random
> >> happenings -was going on. After all, these results would be due to
> >> someting other than chance 999 times out of 1000.
> >>
> >> The exit polling statistics give no information on what that something else
> >> might be.
> >> It could be fraud, machine error, really bad or incompetent exit polling,
> >> something precipitated by TV reporting etc, dishonest answers by those
> >> approached for exit polling. And yes, if you believe in tooth fairies it
> >> could have been a random event.
> >>
> >> Personally, I would like to see every voting machine leave two paper trails.
> >> One would be a receipt showing how the voter voted, that the voter would
> >> keep. The other would be a machine readable ballot that would go into a
> >> ballot box.
> >>
> >> The machine election results would be verified by an actual count of ballots
> >> in the ballot box. Thus there would be very fast results generated from the
> >> voting machine's internal electronics,

>
> Nah.... I don't want no electronics....
>
> and opportunity to verify those
> >> results by a slower (but still rapid) count of the paper trail. The two had
> >> better damn well be in sync.

>
> Yeah, yeah, yeah....
>
> >> We will never be able to know if our elections are honest so long as there
> >> is no paper trial, no counting of machine readable paper ballots, and all we
> >> have to go by is some number the voting machine generated, which we must
> >> accept as "real."
> >>
> >> Old Dahd still lurking and pretending to be a statistician.

> >
> > And doing a credible job of it.
> >
> > There was a very interesting article in _The American Scientist_
> > after the 2000 election about how difficult it is to accurately
> > count a huge number of votes, even by computer, given the
> > probability of errors.
> >
> > I'd like to see polling places with single input devices to two
> > machines, one under control of each major party (sorry, Nader
> > supporters, you don't get your own machines :-) ). Each machine
> > would encrypt the voters' ballot choices and record those on the
> > magnetic strips of credit cards (or smart cards, or some such
> > technology) which would then be given to the voters.

>
> I got a better idea....
>
> You print up ballots like dollar bills. Every one of them hard to
> counterfiet, all have unique serial numbers. Say red one for repubs, blue
> for dems. When you vote, you TAKE the one away that you DON'T want
> elected. Something like in ancient Greek times.


IIRC there is convincing evidence of vote tampering in at least
one major ostracism vote.

> Tha'ts your paper trail.
> THEY have to keep what is left, count up the reds & blues right on TV for
> all to see. Just like the recounts. Citizens can keep their tabs for their
> life.


I like the idea, except it doesn't work for multiple offices,
ballot splitting, special referenda, etc., unless you have multiple
pieces of paper.

>
> If the tallies
> > from the two machines agree, no problem (unless the two major parties
> > are colluding, an interesting premise for a novel or a statement of
> > reality, depending on your point of view). If the tallies disagree,
> > the voters could bring their cards to be scanned and the votes
> > recounted. Is such a system expensive and inconvenient? Probably,
> > but as they say freedom isn't free.

>
> Everything that insures a 'check' also removes our secret vote system.
> That part is bad.


I don't see why. If the cards are encoded and have no personal
information, the results are still secret. You don't let the time
of day the vote was cast or anything like that be recorded so that
no one can begin to make an association between votes and individuals.

>
> > Now, how we get decent candidates from the major parties, or major
> > parties that are significantly different enough in their positions
> > to provide a real choice is another question entirely. :-)

>
> Easy, everyone takes a test and gets asked if they are red or blue or
> neutral and then throw out all the people who pick a color. Use people who
> don't have strong feelings about any issue. Less bias, less corruption.


I like it, but of course that trick only works once.

Cheers,
Russell
--
All too often the study of data requires care.

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Old Post 12-23-2004 08:05 PM
Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
straydog
Usenet User

Registered: Not Yet
Location:
Posts: N/A

Re: Vote fraud....




On Thu, 23 Dec 2004, R. Martin wrote:

> Date: Thu, 23 Dec 2004 22:12:22 GMT
> From: R. Martin <russell.martin@wdn.com>
> Newsgroups: sci.research.careers
> Subject: Re: Vote fraud....
>
> straydog wrote:
>>
>> On Thu, 23 Dec 2004, Russell Martin wrote:
>>


***

>>>
>>> Smith Rhoade wrote:
>>>>
>>>> "cicero" <cicero@spqr.com> wrote in message
>>>> news:cqckb1$f2r$1@admin-svc.micron.com...
>>>>>
>>>>> "straydog" <advocacy@sdf.lonestar.org> wrote in message
>>>>> news:Pine.NEB.4.61.0412221448320.12586@sdf.lonestar.org...
>>>>>>


***

>>>>
>>>> According to the lawsuit, I did read through it, the probability that the
>>>> election results would differ from the exit polling results, by chance, is
>>>> approximately 1 in 1000. This is because the exit polling sample size was
>>>> huge; many multiples of the sample size used for the typical telephone poll
>>>> that has a +/- 3% error.
>>>>
>>>> Thus, while it is certainly possible that the disparities happened by
>>>> chance, (stuff happens one time out of a thousand, randomly), it is
>>>> reasonable to at least strongly suspect that something else -not random
>>>> happenings -was going on. After all, these results would be due to
>>>> someting other than chance 999 times out of 1000.
>>>>


***

>>>>
>>>> The machine election results would be verified by an actual count of ballots
>>>> in the ballot box. Thus there would be very fast results generated from the
>>>> voting machine's internal electronics,

>>
>> Nah.... I don't want no electronics....
>>
>> and opportunity to verify those
>>>> results by a slower (but still rapid) count of the paper trail. The two had
>>>> better damn well be in sync.

>>
>> Yeah, yeah, yeah....
>>
>>>> We will never be able to know if our elections are honest so long as there
>>>> is no paper trial, no counting of machine readable paper ballots, and all we
>>>> have to go by is some number the voting machine generated, which we must
>>>> accept as "real."
>>>>
>>>> Old Dahd still lurking and pretending to be a statistician.
>>>
>>> And doing a credible job of it.
>>>
>>> There was a very interesting article in _The American Scientist_
>>> after the 2000 election about how difficult it is to accurately
>>> count a huge number of votes, even by computer, given the
>>> probability of errors.


How come airlines, who have to match up passengers with planes and routes
and takeoff times don't make anywhere near as many mistakes as the Red
Cross does with blood transfusions?


>>> I'd like to see polling places with single input devices to two
>>> machines, one under control of each major party (sorry, Nader
>>> supporters, you don't get your own machines :-) ). Each machine
>>> would encrypt the voters' ballot choices and record those on the
>>> magnetic strips of credit cards (or smart cards, or some such
>>> technology) which would then be given to the voters.

>>
>> I got a better idea....
>>
>> You print up ballots like dollar bills. Every one of them hard to
>> counterfiet, all have unique serial numbers. Say red one for repubs, blue
>> for dems. When you vote, you TAKE the one away that you DON'T want
>> elected. Something like in ancient Greek times.

>
> IIRC there is convincing evidence of vote tampering in at least
> one major ostracism vote.


OK, we need to think of some way to prevent that.

>> Tha'ts your paper trail.
>> THEY have to keep what is left, count up the reds & blues right on TV for
>> all to see. Just like the recounts. Citizens can keep their tabs for their
>> life.

>
> I like the idea, except it doesn't work for multiple offices,


Spread out the elections all year instead of on one day. Get's people
involved, talking, jawing, and concerned.

> ballot splitting, special referenda, etc., unless you have multiple
> pieces of paper.


So, what's the big deal? They're spending 250-350 million now for a prez
election campaigning costs. How much can it cost to print a good hard to
counterfiet dollar bill? Ten cents?

>>
>> If the tallies
>>> from the two machines agree, no problem (unless the two major parties
>>> are colluding, an interesting premise for a novel or a statement of
>>> reality, depending on your point of view). If the tallies disagree,
>>> the voters could bring their cards to be scanned and the votes
>>> recounted. Is such a system expensive and inconvenient? Probably,
>>> but as they say freedom isn't free.

>>
>> Everything that insures a 'check' also removes our secret vote system.
>> That part is bad.

>
> I don't see why. If the cards are encoded and have no personal
> information, the results are still secret.


Yeah, but if THEY can read the encoding and YOU cannot, then what good is
it? And, it has to link YOU with that pattern of vote. Doesn't it?

Or, how about this possibility: the 'hacked box' prints up the encoded
fake vote (which is not your vote) AND prints up the encoded real vote
(that you made) but was not counted in the real election. And, ... would
they ever tell you how the encryption worked? Or, maybe there are two
secret encryptions, the one the tell you, and the real one they don't tell
you.

You don't let the time
> of day the vote was cast or anything like that be recorded so that
> no one can begin to make an association between votes and individuals.


I...don't....think....I.....like.....that. See above.

>>
>>> Now, how we get decent candidates from the major parties, or major
>>> parties that are significantly different enough in their positions
>>> to provide a real choice is another question entirely. :-)

>>
>> Easy, everyone takes a test and gets asked if they are red or blue or
>> neutral and then throw out all the people who pick a color. Use people who
>> don't have strong feelings about any issue. Less bias, less corruption.

>
> I like it, but of course that trick only works once.


Sheesh, you would have to burst my bubble, eh?

> Cheers,
> Russell
> --
> All too often the study of data requires care.
>










































































































































































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Old Post 12-23-2004 11:02 PM
Edit/Delete Message Reply w/Quote
R. Martin
Usenet User

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Re: Vote fraud....

straydog wrote:
>
> On Thu, 23 Dec 2004, R. Martin wrote:
>
> > Date: Thu, 23 Dec 2004 22:12:22 GMT
> > From: R. Martin <russell.martin@wdn.com>
> > Newsgroups: sci.research.careers
> > Subject: Re: Vote fraud....
> >
> > straydog wrote:
> >>
> >> On Thu, 23 Dec 2004, Russell Martin wrote:
> >>

>
> ***
>
> >>>
> >>> Smith Rhoade wrote:
> >>>>
> >>>> "cicero" <cicero@spqr.com> wrote in message
> >>>> news:cqckb1$f2r$1@admin-svc.micron.com...
> >>>>>
> >>>>> "straydog" <advocacy@sdf.lonestar.org> wrote in message
> >>>>> news:Pine.NEB.4.61.0412221448320.12586@sdf.lonestar.org...
> >>>>>>

>
> ***
>
> >>>>
> >>>> According to the lawsuit, I did read through it, the probability that the
> >>>> election results would differ from the exit polling results, by chance, is
> >>>> approximately 1 in 1000. This is because the exit polling sample size was
> >>>> huge; many multiples of the sample size used for the typical telephone poll
> >>>> that has a +/- 3% error.
> >>>>
> >>>> Thus, while it is certainly possible that the disparities happened by
> >>>> chance, (stuff happens one time out of a thousand, randomly), it is
> >>>> reasonable to at least strongly suspect that something else -not random
> >>>> happenings -was going on. After all, these results would be due to
> >>>> someting other than chance 999 times out of 1000.
> >>>>

>
> ***
>
> >>>>
> >>>> The machine election results would be verified by an actual count of ballots
> >>>> in the ballot box. Thus there would be very fast results generated from the
> >>>> voting machine's internal electronics,
> >>
> >> Nah.... I don't want no electronics....
> >>
> >> and opportunity to verify those
> >>>> results by a slower (but still rapid) count of the paper trail. The two had
> >>>> better damn well be in sync.
> >>
> >> Yeah, yeah, yeah....
> >>
> >>>> We will never be able to know if our elections are honest so long as there
> >>>> is no paper trial, no counting of machine readable paper ballots, and all we
> >>>> have to go by is some number the voting machine generated, which we must
> >>>> accept as "real."
> >>>>
> >>>> Old Dahd still lurking and pretending to be a statistician.
> >>>
> >>> And doing a credible job of it.
> >>>
> >>> There was a very interesting article in _The American Scientist_
> >>> after the 2000 election about how difficult it is to accurately
> >>> count a huge number of votes, even by computer, given the
> >>> probability of errors.

>
> How come airlines, who have to match up passengers with planes and routes
> and takeoff times don't make anywhere near as many mistakes as the Red
> Cross does with blood transfusions?


Don't they? Anyway, 100 million people in the U.S. don't fly every day.

>
> >>> I'd like to see polling places with single input devices to two
> >>> machines, one under control of each major party (sorry, Nader
> >>> supporters, you don't get your own machines :-) ). Each machine
> >>> would encrypt the voters' ballot choices and record those on the
> >>> magnetic strips of credit cards (or smart cards, or some such
> >>> technology) which would then be given to the voters.
> >>
> >> I got a better idea....
> >>
> >> You print up ballots like dollar bills. Every one of them hard to
> >> counterfiet, all have unique serial numbers. Say red one for repubs, blue
> >> for dems. When you vote, you TAKE the one away that you DON'T want
> >> elected. Something like in ancient Greek times.

> >
> > IIRC there is convincing evidence of vote tampering in at least
> > one major ostracism vote.

>
> OK, we need to think of some way to prevent that.
>
> >> Tha'ts your paper trail.
> >> THEY have to keep what is left, count up the reds & blues right on TV for
> >> all to see. Just like the recounts. Citizens can keep their tabs for their
> >> life.

> >
> > I like the idea, except it doesn't work for multiple offices,

>
> Spread out the elections all year instead of on one day. Get's people
> involved, talking, jawing, and concerned.


Yes, but then people have to take time to vote that many more times.
It is hard enough to get people to vote for President, and at least
then maybe they'll vote on some other things. You know how poor the
turnout is for special elections like to fill one vacancy on the
school board or something. Many people would vote for President and
just blow off the rest of the elections.

>
> > ballot splitting, special referenda, etc., unless you have multiple
> > pieces of paper.

>
> So, what's the big deal? They're spending 250-350 million now for a prez
> election campaigning costs. How much can it cost to print a good hard to
> counterfiet dollar bill? Ten cents?


True, I'm just pointing out that it is a complication.

>
> >>
> >> If the tallies
> >>> from the two machines agree, no problem (unless the two major parties
> >>> are colluding, an interesting premise for a novel or a statement of
> >>> reality, depending on your point of view). If the tallies disagree,
> >>> the voters could bring their cards to be scanned and the votes
> >>> recounted. Is such a system expensive and inconvenient? Probably,
> >>> but as they say freedom isn't free.
> >>
> >> Everything that insures a 'check' also removes our secret vote system.
> >> That part is bad.

> >
> > I don't see why. If the cards are encoded and have no personal
> > information, the results are still secret.

>
> Yeah, but if THEY can read the encoding and YOU cannot, then what good is
> it?


No reason in principle why you couldn't read it. In fact, say
it used a public/private encrytion scheme where it was encrypted
with the public key, but only you have the private key. If there
was a recount and you wanted to make sure your vote counted, you'd
go back to the polling place and insert the card and key in your
private key and your vote would be read back to you in private and
you'd be asked to confirm that it was recorded on the card the way
you intended. Conditions would be just as private as when you cast
the original vote.

> And, it has to link YOU with that pattern of vote. Doesn't it?


No. Say we had a system like is being proposed now with a paper
receipt with your votes recorded. That wouldn't have your name on
it. Neither would a card.

>
> Or, how about this possibility: the 'hacked box' prints up the encoded
> fake vote (which is not your vote) AND prints up the encoded real vote
> (that you made) but was not counted in the real election.


Yes, one can imagine any number of scenarios, but for that matter
why would anyone bother tampering with votes when Skull and Bones
is already secretly running everything anyway? :-)

> And, ... would
> they ever tell you how the encryption worked?


That can be public knowledge.

> Or, maybe there are two
> secret encryptions, the one the tell you, and the real one they don't tell
> you.


Like I said, one can imagine numerous nefarious scenarios. Like
security, it is never possible to make it perfect. One just tries
to raise the cost of defeating it high enough to make the effort
uneconomic. Of course, when the prize is control of the U.S., I
suppose there are people willing to spend enough to defeat any
system. But in that case, our present wimpy voting fraud prevention
efforts didn't even slow anyone down, which is the point of the
lawsuit I suppose.

> You don't let the time
> > of day the vote was cast or anything like that be recorded so that
> > no one can begin to make an association between votes and individuals.

>
> I...don't....think....I.....like.....that. See above.


Sorry, I don't see how there is any more possibility of associating
a given person with a given vote under that systen than there is
now, if anyone really wanted to know. For instance, for all we
know there are miniature cameras hidden in the new voting machines
that take each voter's picture and match it to the secret FBI facial
data base and already tell the President who voted for whom. Geeze,
Art, even I'm not that paranoid. :-)

>
> >>
> >>> Now, how we get decent candidates from the major parties, or major
> >>> parties that are significantly different enough in their positions
> >>> to provide a real choice is another question entirely. :-)
> >>
> >> Easy, everyone takes a test and gets asked if they are red or blue or
> >> neutral and then throw out all the people who pick a color. Use people who
> >> don't have strong feelings about any issue. Less bias, less corruption.

> >
> > I like it, but of course that trick only works once.

>
> Sheesh, you would have to burst my bubble, eh?


That's not to say you don't have the germ of a good idea. Maybe we
need to do something like that, but make it a random choice as to
which group gets control of the government each election, which
would then make everyone choose which group they should claim to
be in if they want to be in power. Two of the possible strategies
would be to stay in the original groups and wait for chance to give
your group control, or change groups, which would then mix up people
in the controlling "party", making it efffectively not a party
anymore. I bet this could be simulated, like some work I recently
read in _Science_ about the evolution of cooperation as a social
strategy. Sounds like a good research project for a semi-retired
PhD with lots of old computers. ;-)

Cheers,
Russell
--
All too often the study of data requires care.

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Old Post 12-24-2004 01:01 AM
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straydog
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Registered: Not Yet
Location:
Posts: N/A

Re: Vote fraud....


On Fri, 24 Dec 2004, R. Martin wrote:

> Date: Fri, 24 Dec 2004 03:15:32 GMT
> From: R. Martin <russell.martin@wdn.com>
> Newsgroups: sci.research.careers
> Subject: Re: Vote fraud....



>>>>> after the 2000 election about how difficult it is to accurately
>>>>> count a huge number of votes, even by computer, given the
>>>>> probability of errors.

>>
>> How come airlines, who have to match up passengers with planes and routes
>> and takeoff times don't make anywhere near as many mistakes as the Red
>> Cross does with blood transfusions?

>
> Don't they?


No, and back over ten years ago when the FDA got a consent decree over RC
screwups, the RD hired a consultant from the airlines industry ticket
center to help them. I talked to the guy....totally by accident.

> Anyway, 100 million people in the U.S. don't fly every day.


Even less than that vote every day, either.

But, I'm going to say that I _think_ the number of people in the air every
day is at least the same number as the number on the cot giving blood.



>>>
>>> I like the idea, except it doesn't work for multiple offices,

>>
>> Spread out the elections all year instead of on one day. Get's people
>> involved, talking, jawing, and concerned.

>
> Yes, but then people have to take time to vote that many more times.
> It is hard enough to get people to vote for President, and at least
> then maybe they'll vote on some other things. You know how poor the
> turnout is for special elections like to fill one vacancy on the
> school board or something. Many people would vote for President and
> just blow off the rest of the elections.


OK, then if that's the way people want it, then let them show up or not
show up, as they see fit. If people don't show up, then they are saying
one of several things that have come out in the media: i) elections are
irrelevant to their lives, ii) they don't care, iii) they are too lazy,
iv) etc. I've said it before: if you add up the people who voted for the
guy that didn't win plus the people who didn't vote, you'd get a majority
which shows that in the end only a minority of people get what they want.

Besides, I haven't seen too many candidates for anything in many decades
that I could get very excited about. I didn't like Bush, but wasn't that
happy with Kerry, either. What to do?

>>
>>> ballot splitting, special referenda, etc., unless you have multiple
>>> pieces of paper.

>>
>> So, what's the big deal? They're spending 250-350 million now for a prez
>> election campaigning costs. How much can it cost to print a good hard to
>> counterfiet dollar bill? Ten cents?

>
> True, I'm just pointing out that it is a complication.


Sure, if we got serious about this, we'd really have to study the whole
issue in much more detail. Even with paper ballots (like the old days),
you have to trust the staff at the polling place. They could fiddle the
election, too. There's been stories of people registerd at vacant lots
voting as far back as I can remember, stories of people who were
registered who were also dead voting, too. etc. Then there's the one "Hey,
I saw your face in here earlier today...you already voted!"

>>>>> but as they say freedom isn't free.
>>>>
>>>> Everything that insures a 'check' also removes our secret vote system.
>>>> That part is bad.
>>>
>>> I don't see why. If the cards are encoded and have no personal
>>> information, the results are still secret.

>>
>> Yeah, but if THEY can read the encoding and YOU cannot, then what good is
>> it?

>
> No reason in principle why you couldn't read it. In fact, say
> it used a public/private encrytion scheme where it was encrypted
> with the public key, but only you have the private key.


I'm thinking about two real encryption schemes: one to make you happy, and
you can read it, but the other encryption scheme, simultaneously valid,
makes the fake vote show up where it counts. And, ...thus...little guys
like us are 'snookered.'

If there
> was a recount and you wanted to make sure your vote counted, you'd
> go back to the polling place and insert the card and key in your
> private key and your vote would be read back to you in private and
> you'd be asked to confirm that it was recorded on the card the way
> you intended. Conditions would be just as private as when you cast
> the original vote.


There's an old saw: if the crooks can look at and understand ANY safeguard
technology then they can break in and steal the jewels.

>> And, it has to link YOU with that pattern of vote. Doesn't it?

>
> No. Say we had a system like is being proposed now with a paper
> receipt with your votes recorded. That wouldn't have your name on
> it. Neither would a card.


Oh... maybe I would give up secret ballots.....have something like a giant
stone with name & vote carved in...out in the public...anyone and everyone
can go count the votes if they want and make sure nobody's name comes up
more than ones (yeah, lots of Smiths out there, they need ID numbers or
something).

>>
>> Or, how about this possibility: the 'hacked box' prints up the encoded
>> fake vote (which is not your vote) AND prints up the encoded real vote
>> (that you made) but was not counted in the real election.

>
> Yes, one can imagine any number of scenarios, but for that matter
> why would anyone bother tampering with votes when Skull and Bones
> is already secretly running everything anyway? :-)


Bingo! You're right! (read "The Color of Truth" by Kai Bird)

>> And, ... would
>> they ever tell you how the encryption worked?

>
> That can be public knowledge.


Except if the NSA is involved.

>> Or, maybe there are two
>> secret encryptions, the one the tell you, and the real one they don't tell
>> you.

>
> Like I said, one can imagine numerous nefarious scenarios. Like
> security, it is never possible to make it perfect. One just tries
> to raise the cost of defeating it high enough to make the effort
> uneconomic. Of course, when the prize is control of the U.S., I
> suppose there are people willing to spend enough to defeat any
> system. But in that case, our present wimpy voting fraud prevention
> efforts didn't even slow anyone down, which is the point of the
> lawsuit I suppose.


Yeah, and I'll be interested in how it comes out.

>> You don't let the time
>>> of day the vote was cast or anything like that be recorded so that
>>> no one can begin to make an association between votes and individuals.

>>
>> I...don't....think....I.....like.....that. See above.

>
> Sorry, I don't see how there is any more possibility of associating
> a given person with a given vote under that systen than there is
> now, if anyone really wanted to know. For instance, for all we
> know there are miniature cameras hidden in the new voting machines
> that take each voter's picture and match it to the secret FBI facial
> data base and already tell the President who voted for whom. Geeze,
> Art, even I'm not that paranoid. :-)


Hah, ...you did know, didn't you, that the FBI has dossiers on about 20
million Americans, didn't you? It was the big deal back about 20+ years
ago to do a FOIA to get your FBI files (all with felt tip blackouts to
prevent you from seeing enough of the context that you still didn't know
what they 'had' on you).


>>>> neutral and then throw out all the people who pick a color. Use people who
>>>> don't have strong feelings about any issue. Less bias, less corruption.
>>>
>>> I like it, but of course that trick only works once.

>>
>> Sheesh, you would have to burst my bubble, eh?

>
> That's not to say you don't have the germ of a good idea. Maybe we
> need to do something like that, but make it a random choice as to
> which group gets control of the government each election, which
> would then make everyone choose which group they should claim to
> be in if they want to be in power.


How about, like the military draft, we also have a political draft. Random
pick of a SS number, and, bingo: you get to be some politician for 2-4
years? At a random chance, I'd bet you'd have just about the same
probability of getting a representative portfolio of "jerks" as we get
now. Heck, if the likes of RR and the Governator can get in and do this
work (do they need to know science, calculus, etc.?), we wouldn't be any
worse off ? ! eh?

Two of the possible strategies
> would be to stay in the original groups and wait for chance to give
> your group control, or change groups, which would then mix up people
> in the controlling "party", making it efffectively not a party
> anymore. I bet this could be simulated, like some work I recently
> read in _Science_ about the evolution of cooperation as a social
> strategy.


Yeah, the meerkats! I like meerkats. If I could just arrange a
reincarnation into a meerkat community.......

Sounds like a good research project for a semi-retired
> PhD with lots of old computers. ;-)


Hah!!! ANd, I finished the book on Utopias. Maybe I'll make a little post
about it over the next few days.

And, I have another book, Backyard Utopias, and the subtitle is all about
socialist utopias in the USA from the 1600s up to quite recently.

Cheers,
Art
Retired, ex-scientist (would NOT do it again if I had the chance), and
PhD (=worthless degree), and BFD (anyway). All the old cheap computers are
good, with DOS, they're immune to hacking, no viruses, no spyware, no
scumware, etc.

> Cheers,
> Russell
> --
> All too often the study of data requires care.
>





















































































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